Before Dec 1, 2026
The market favoured No at 83% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolved1 Dec 2026
Why it moved: +80 points at 17:42 UTC, after The Hill: Machado returns to Venezuela after 10 months of exile — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 25 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 97% |
| 24 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 17% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%