Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$354
Total volume$70k
Liquidity$70k
Resolves2 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Lula announces his resignation or leaves office before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he remains in power past that date. Readers often mistake the election victory for leaving office, but only actual departure or announcement counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%