At least 4.5%
Implied probability 20%+3
24-hour volume$45
Total volume$366k
Liquidity$366k
Resolves14 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 18 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 17% |
| 18 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 17% |
| 14 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 18% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if year-over-year CPI inflation reaches at least 4.5% in any single month during 2026. It resolves to No if that threshold is never met throughout the entire year. Readers often mistake the current September rate of 3.7% as decisive, but only data from 2026 counts toward the final outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%