Karen Bass, ≥8%
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$22k
Liquidity$22k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 07:44 UTC | 14% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 8%. The margin must be strictly less than 100% for the outcome to be Yes. Readers often mistake the resolution source, which relies on the official certified election results rather than preliminary vote counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%