Karen Bass, 2-4%
Why it moved: +47 points at 07:13 UTC, after Deadline: Nithya Raman & Karen Bass In Dead Heat As L.A. Mayor Vote Counting Continues In Nailbiter Election — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 48% |
| 4 Nov, 07:13 UTC | 48% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 22:12 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 16:28 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin between 2% and 4%. It resolves to No if her victory margin falls outside that range or if she loses. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself, but the resolution depends on the final certified vote count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 48%
- No 52%