Yes
Implied probability 13%+5
24-hour volume$19
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 17 Oct, 02:17 UTC | 13% |
| 16 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 15:31 UTC | 13% |
| 15 Oct, 23:15 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 9% |
| 14 Oct, 07:02 UTC | 8% |
| 13 Oct, 22:11 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 11:41 UTC | 22% |
| 13 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 21% |
| 13 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 17% |
| 12 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 13% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Oct, 21:06 UTC | 11% |
| 10 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 10% |
| 10 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 15% |
| 10 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 21% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Rospotrebnadzor announces that it identified a specific pathogen as the cause of death for an Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee before November 1, 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake any general mention of plague or other sources for the official announcement required by Rospotrebnadzor.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 87%