Fay
Implied probability 1%−3
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$29k
Liquidity$29k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 06:37 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 3% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a storm named Fay becomes a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean between May 15, 2026, and December 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such storm occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the current intensification of Tropical Storm Fay for a resolution, but the outcome depends entirely on whether it reaches hurricane status during the specified future dates.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%