Above 2
Why it moved: −5 points at 20:09 UTC, after The Hill: Tropical tracker: Timeline of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 9% |
| 13 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 11% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 9% |
| 13 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 05:15 UTC | 11% |
| 13 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 10% |
| 13 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 18:30 UTC | 11% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than two Category 3 or stronger hurricanes between January 1, 2026, and December 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the end date as December 31, 2026, but the deadline is actually December 1, 2026.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%