Above 4
Implied probability 8%
24-hour volume$223
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$25k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 13 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 8% |
| 13 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Oct, 18:30 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than four hurricanes of Category 1 or higher between January 1 and December 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the calendar year rather than December 1.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%