Category 2 or above
The market favoured Yes at 92% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$21k
Total volume$40k
Liquidity$40k
Resolved9 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 95% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 97% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 95% |
| 7 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 92% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Isaias achieves maximum sustained winds of at least 96 mph. It resolves to No if the storm never reaches that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the category rating for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed measurement determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%