Democrats, ≥8%
Why it moved: +21 points at 05:31 UTC, after The Hill: Trump congratulates Democrats after midterm romp — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 07:27 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 77% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 01:43 UTC | 69% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Democrats win the national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points over Republicans in the November 3, 2026 general election. The outcome is No if that margin falls below 8 percentage points or if Republicans lead. Readers often mistake this for a Senate race or confuse the date with the 2024 elections.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%