Republicans win
Implied probability 5%+1
24-hour volume$64k
Total volume$1.5M
Liquidity$1.5M
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 18:33 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 10:06 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 19:00 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House national popular vote falls between -100 and 0 percentage points. This means Democrats must win at least a tie in the total national vote count, or Republicans must win by any amount. Readers often mistake this for a seat-count resolution or confuse it with other election metrics.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%