Democrats, 2 to 4%
Implied probability 0%−3
24-hour volume$83k
Total volume$450k
Liquidity$450k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 01:20 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 00:00 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 10:38 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 3% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote falls between 2 and 4 percentage points, including 2 but excluding 4. The outcome depends entirely on the final national popular vote count for that specific election.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%