Democrats, 0 to 2%
Implied probability 0%−1
24-hour volume$135k
Total volume$592k
Liquidity$592k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House national popular vote falls between 0 and 2 percentage points, including 0 but excluding 2. The outcome is No if the margin is outside this range. Readers often mistake the linked story about Brazil for the resolution criteria, but only the 2026 U.S. House election results matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%