Above 20
Implied probability 88%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$44k
Liquidity$44k
Resolves27 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 88% |
| 23 Oct, 04:02 UTC | 88% |
| 22 Oct, 20:48 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 88% |
| 22 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 90% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 93% |
| 22 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 87% |
| 22 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 90% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 91% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 92% |
| 21 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 93% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 90% |
| 20 Oct, 00:45 UTC | 68% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the IMF PortWatch reports more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz between October 19 and October 25, 2026. It resolves to No if that number is 20 or fewer. Readers often mistake the linked news story about tanker attacks for the data source, but only the official IMF PortWatch counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 88%
- No 12%