At least 25%
The market favoured Yes at 87% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 98%
24-hour volume$707
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolved31 Dec 2027
Why it moved: +11 points at 07:09 UTC, after The Guardian: Holborn and St Pancras byelection loss will disappoint Greens – but there may also be relief — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 04:18 UTC | 87% |
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%