2
Implied probability 45%+4
24-hour volume$206
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves15 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 45% |
| 2 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 45% |
| 30 Oct, 18:39 UTC | 41% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Republicans win exactly two Senate or gubernatorial races in the 19 states that Kamala Harris won in 2024 by the November 3, 2026 general election. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline for Election Day itself rather than the specific November 3 date, or they ignore the requirement that the count must be exactly two.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 45%
- No 55%