Above 0
Why it moved: +5 points at 21:57 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Why measles outbreak in Pennsylvania poses risks beyond US borders — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 90% |
| 22 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 90% |
| 21 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 85% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the total count of human H5N1 cases in the United States during 2026 exceeds zero. It resolves to No if that total remains at zero for the entire year. Readers often confuse this with measles cases or other diseases, but only confirmed human H5N1 infections count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 90%
- No 10%