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Before Jan 1, 2027

Resolved: Yes 23d ago

The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$27
Total volume$37k
Liquidity$37k
Resolved1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Before Jan 1, 2027
0%50%100%99%10 Oct, 20:34 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now99%
13 Oct, 16:04 UTC99%
13 Oct, 15:57 UTC99%
13 Oct, 15:10 UTC98%
13 Oct, 14:13 UTC99%
13 Oct, 13:41 UTC78%
13 Oct, 12:51 UTC76%
13 Oct, 12:22 UTC69%
13 Oct, 11:41 UTC79%
13 Oct, 10:51 UTC86%
13 Oct, 09:26 UTC88%
13 Oct, 08:20 UTC87%
13 Oct, 06:01 UTC85%
13 Oct, 04:48 UTC87%
13 Oct, 04:08 UTC88%
13 Oct, 01:14 UTC87%
13 Oct, 00:54 UTC83%
13 Oct, 00:28 UTC88%
12 Oct, 23:14 UTC86%
12 Oct, 22:27 UTC84%
12 Oct, 21:54 UTC89%
12 Oct, 21:19 UTC83%
12 Oct, 20:09 UTC79%
12 Oct, 19:27 UTC86%
12 Oct, 17:43 UTC83%
12 Oct, 16:19 UTC82%
12 Oct, 13:16 UTC83%
12 Oct, 12:43 UTC81%
12 Oct, 11:32 UTC71%
12 Oct, 10:53 UTC76%
12 Oct, 05:37 UTC82%
12 Oct, 05:00 UTC85%
12 Oct, 04:29 UTC80%
12 Oct, 02:02 UTC81%
12 Oct, 01:31 UTC76%
12 Oct, 00:53 UTC77%
12 Oct, 00:15 UTC71%
11 Oct, 23:11 UTC70%
11 Oct, 22:34 UTC69%
11 Oct, 22:21 UTC71%
11 Oct, 19:52 UTC67%
11 Oct, 19:24 UTC63%
11 Oct, 17:30 UTC68%
11 Oct, 16:06 UTC66%
11 Oct, 15:58 UTC68%
11 Oct, 09:34 UTC64%
11 Oct, 04:22 UTC66%
11 Oct, 03:45 UTC64%
11 Oct, 01:10 UTC57%
11 Oct, 00:51 UTC55%
11 Oct, 00:20 UTC65%
10 Oct, 23:17 UTC64%
10 Oct, 20:34 UTC65%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Kimberly Guilfoyle departs her role as US Ambassador to Greece before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of a news report about her leaving for the actual deadline, but only her official departure matters.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 99%
  • No 1%

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