Rob Sand, ≥14%
Why it moved: −48 points at 05:02 UTC, after Mother Jones: Rob Sand Said He Wasn’t Trying to Turn Iowa Blue. Well, He Did. — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 02:00 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Rob Sand wins the 2026 Iowa governor race by a margin of 14% or more. The outcome is No if his winning margin falls below that threshold. Readers often mistake the projected win in the linked story for the final official result, but only the certified election margin determines the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%