Byron Donalds, 0-2%
Why it moved: +69 points at 04:03 UTC, after Mother Jones: Byron Donalds Is Florida’s Next Governor — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 04:03 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:41 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 23:34 UTC | 19% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome "Yes" occurs if Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election with a margin of victory between 0% and 2%. The outcome "No" applies if his margin is outside that range or if he does not win. Readers often mistakenly believe this market resolves based on the linked story about Schwartzel winning a House seat, but it strictly depends on Donalds' performance in the gubernatorial election.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%