Before 2029
Implied probability 25%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$27k
Liquidity$27k
Resolves30 Jun 2029
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if manufacturing’s share of GDP reaches at least 13.1% in the fourth quarter of 2028. It resolves to No if that value stays below 13.1% during that same quarter. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2029 instead of Q4 2028.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 75%