Above $4.6 trillion
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves1 Apr 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 12 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Japan's nominal GDP exceeds $4.6 trillion in 2026. It resolves to No if the figure stays at or below that amount. Readers often mistake the linked IMF growth forecast for the actual GDP value.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%