Before Nov 1, 2026
Implied probability 7%−4
24-hour volume$16k
Total volume$53k
Liquidity$53k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 06:05 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 14:20 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 09:50 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 14:51 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 09:00 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Oct, 20:48 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 00:22 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Oct, 16:20 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 20% |
| 19 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the French government declares a state of emergency between now and November 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such declaration occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about riots for the official trigger, but only a formal government declaration counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%