Before Dec 1, 2026
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$29k
Liquidity$29k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 19:07 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro physically travels to and is present in Brazil before December 1, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not visit during that period. Readers often mistake his departure from Brazil for a visit, but only his return counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%