Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 0%−7
24-hour volume$38
Total volume$49k
Liquidity$49k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Why it moved: −7 points at 00:43 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Obama slams Trump’s ‘cruelty and corruption’ at Ohio rally for Democrats — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 25 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 7% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran holds a presidential election before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about US Senate actions for the actual event required for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%