Volkswagen (3+ times)
The market favoured Yes at 83% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$532
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolved27 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Oct, 13:31 UTC | 83% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a Rivian representative explicitly states that Volkswagen has experienced three or more losses during the upcoming live earnings call or official broadcast. The outcome is No if this specific statement does not occur within that designated timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Volkswagen’s recent loss as the trigger, but only spoken words from Rivian matter for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%