YouTube Shorts
Implied probability 1%−26
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves31 Mar 2027
Why it moved: −29 points at 21:22 UTC, after The New York Times: Alphabet’s Revenue Rises 25% as Profit Falls — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 24% |
| 27 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 27% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an Alphabet representative mentions YouTube Shorts during the upcoming earnings call or Q&A session. It resolves to No if they do not mention it within that specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about subscriber counts for the resolution criteria, but only spoken words on the earnings call count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%