Inflation
The market favoured Yes at 85% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +11 points at 12:12 UTC, after Quartz: GE Vernova agreed to buy high-voltage grid equipment maker Trench Group for $9 billion — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 88% |
| 28 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 87% |
| 27 Oct, 10:37 UTC | 85% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if any GE Vernova representative mentions inflation during the upcoming live earnings call or official broadcast, including the question-and-answer session. It resolves to No if they do not mention it within that specific event. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the statement must appear in written reports rather than being spoken aloud during the live call.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%