Basel 3
Why it moved: −9 points at 13:18 UTC, after Quartz: Citigroup posted its best bond-trading quarter in a decade, beating profit estimates — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 46% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 46% |
| 12 Oct, 13:02 UTC | 55% |
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if any Citigroup representative mentions Basel 3 during the upcoming earnings call or Q&A session. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of financial results rather than a specific verbal reference.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 46%
- No 54%