Iran / Middle East
The market favoured No at 54% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$20k
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$21k
Resolved31 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 46% |
| 29 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Oct, 00:00 UTC | 47% |
| 28 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 50% |
| 27 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 44% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an Amazon representative mentions Iran or the Middle East during the upcoming earnings call, including the question-and-answer session. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, thinking any news report counts instead of only what is spoken by Amazon representatives.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%