Above $8.60
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$26k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 13:14 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the AAA national average price for diesel in the US exceeds $8.60 at any point between issuance and December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if the price never reaches that threshold during this period. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the year without realizing the price must be above $8.60 specifically for diesel, not gasoline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%