Gavin Newsom
Why it moved: +3 points at 02:37 UTC, after The Hill News: Newsom on possible Democrat ‘tsunami’ on Election Day: ‘That’s a word I haven’t used lightly’ — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Nov, 01:33 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Gavin Newsom publicly declares his candidacy for the 2028 US presidential election before November 7, 2028, and no other person on the list has done so earlier. The outcome is No if he does not declare by that date or if someone else declares first. Readers often mistake the deadline as November 7, 2024, but it is actually November 7, 2028.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%