1
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolved8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump makes exactly one trip to Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. during October 2026. It resolves to No if he makes zero trips or two or more trips in that month. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the count applies to any time in 2026 rather than specifically October.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%