La Bola Negra
Implied probability 28%+1
24-hour volume$170
Total volume$68k
Liquidity$68k
Resolves4 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 28% |
| 16 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the film *La Bola Negra* wins the award for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards. It resolves to No if it does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake the Cannes success mentioned in the headline as the deciding factor, but only the Critics Choice Award result matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 28%
- No 72%