Nottinghamshire
The market favoured Yes at 58% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolved30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 22% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 68% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 06:16 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Sept, 05:08 UTC | 79% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 78% |
| 26 Sept, 03:31 UTC | 82% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Sept, 02:02 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 67% |
| 26 Sept, 00:49 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Sept, 21:00 UTC | 81% |
| 25 Sept, 20:53 UTC | 79% |
| 25 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 77% |
| 25 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Sept, 18:29 UTC | 77% |
| 25 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Sept, 16:58 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 73% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 59% |
| 25 Sept, 13:54 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Sept, 13:18 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Sept, 12:38 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Sept, 10:57 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 72% |
| 25 Sept, 03:24 UTC | 72% |
| 25 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Sept, 02:26 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 01:33 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Sept, 01:26 UTC | 72% |
| 25 Sept, 00:59 UTC | 63% |
| 25 Sept, 00:13 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 60% |
| 24 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 73% |
| 24 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Sept, 18:31 UTC | 63% |
What counts
Nottinghamshire must win their scheduled match against Yorkshire on September 24, 2026, for the outcome to be Yes. Any other result leads to No. Readers often mistake this market as resolving based on the County Championship title race rather than the specific head-to-head game.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%