Nevada
Implied probability 0%−11
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$25k
Resolves20 Jan 2027
Why it moved: −11 points at 10:05 UTC, after NPR Politics: Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford beats GOP incumbent for governor — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 08:58 UTC | 11% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Nevada’s margin of victory is the smallest among all 2026 gubernatorial races as of January 20, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%