Arizona
Implied probability 0%−1
24-hour volume$6
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves20 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 17:33 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 16:31 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Arizona has the smallest margin of victory among all 2026 U.S. gubernatorial elections as of January 20, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about who wins the Arizona race rather than a comparison of margins across all states.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%