Above $10.4 billion
Implied probability 87%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves4 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 87% |
| 22 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 87% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Instacart reports a gross transaction value above $10.4 billion for the third quarter of 2026. The outcome is No if that specific quarterly figure does not exceed that threshold. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a potential sale as the resolution trigger, but only the Q3 2026 financial report matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 87%
- No 13%