Before Dec 1, 2026
Why it moved: +39 points at 20:19 UTC, after The Guardian US: Embattled Susan Collins announces exemptions for Maine from Trump Canada tariffs — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 75% |
| 23 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 75% |
| 22 Oct, 19:40 UTC | 36% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Canada’s Prime Minister personally announces a new decision to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing tariff on U.S. goods between issuance and December 1, 2026. The announcement must be official and specifically commit Canada to this action. Readers often mistake general trade discussions or announcements by other officials for a valid resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 75%
- No 25%