Below 44
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Democrats win fewer than 44 seats in the 2026 California House elections. It resolves to No if they win 44 or more seats. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final certification of results.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 100%