John Ratcliffe
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$370
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolved20 Jan 2029
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if John Ratcliffe becomes the first member of Donald Trump’s Cabinet to leave or announce his departure after May 22, 2026. It resolves to No if he remains in office or if another cabinet member leaves before him during that period. Readers often mistake the date for when the event must occur rather than when the clock starts ticking.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%