Before Dec 2026
Why it moved: −12 points at 14:29 UTC, after The Guardian: Trump-appointed CDC deputy director to resign after six months on the job — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 60% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if a member of Trump’s Cabinet leaves their office or announces they will leave before December 1, 2026. The outcome is No if no such departure occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the linked story about a CDC deputy director for a Cabinet position, but only Cabinet members count toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 47%
- No 53%