Proposition 39
The market favoured No at 84% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$25
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 16:12 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 09:06 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 07:12 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 06:15 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 04:01 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 03:12 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 02:51 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Nov, 20:58 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Nov, 15:19 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 22% |
| 31 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 15% |
| 31 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 15% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 16% |
| 31 Oct, 04:14 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 13% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if California voters approve Proposition 39. It resolves to No if they reject it or if the measure fails to pass for any other reason. Readers often mistake the DOJ's legal threat for a change in the outcome, but only the election results matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%