Brexit
The market favoured Yes at 59% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$432
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolved18 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +74 points at 05:44 UTC, after The Guardian Business: Will the budget deliver ‘growth in every postcode’? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 29 Oct, 05:44 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 25% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%