Flávio Bolsonaro
Implied probability 1%−59
24-hour volume$15k
Total volume$111k
Liquidity$111k
Resolves4 Oct 2027
Why it moved: −45 points at 22:10 UTC, after NPR World: The Amazon's future is on the ballot in Brazil. Many voters aren't focused on it — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 67% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Oct, 04:45 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Oct, 10:32 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 71% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro places second in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election based on certified results. It resolves to No if he does not finish second. Readers often mistake the deadline for the debate mentioned in the linked story, but the actual trigger is the official election certification.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%