Above $108.99
Implied probability 20%−8
24-hour volume$929
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves23 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 22% |
| 20 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 32% |
| 20 Oct, 12:16 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 34% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Brent crude oil price exceeds $108.99 at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. It resolves to No if the price is $108.99 or lower at that specific moment. Readers often mistake the headline’s mention of $110 for the resolution criteria, but only the closing price at the designated time matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%