Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?
Implied probability 66%−1
24-hour volume$219k
Total volume$1.6M
Liquidity$1.6M
Resolves1 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 13:40 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Nov, 10:38 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 66% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 66% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 66% |
| 2 Nov, 06:35 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Nov, 18:33 UTC | 63% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 63% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Nov, 08:54 UTC | 63% |
| 1 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 63% |
| 1 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 64% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 63% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 62% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 61% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 60% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 61% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 62% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 61% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 60% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 61% |
| 31 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 60% |
| 31 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 61% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 60% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 61% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 62% |
| 31 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 65% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 64% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 64% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 65% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 64% |
| 30 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 64% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 62% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 63% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 57% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 58% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 57% |
| 29 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 58% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 56% |
| 29 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 57% |
| 29 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 56% |
| 29 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 57% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 56% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 55% |
| 28 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 56% |
| 28 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 55% |
| 28 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 10:48 UTC | 55% |
| 28 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 56% |
| 28 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 55% |
| 28 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 55% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
Democrats must win at least 235 House seats and 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections for the outcome to be Yes. The market resolves based on the final certified results of those specific elections, not on polls or forecasts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 66%
- No 34%