Texas
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves3 Jan 2027
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Texas has the highest Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among all states where a Republican wins a 2026 U.S. Senate seat; otherwise, it is No. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about who will win the Senate race rather than which state has the largest Democratic presidential margin among Republican Senate winners.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%