BC Conservatives
Why it moved: +5 points at 19:03 UTC, after The Guardian: Parties prepare for byelection in Farage seat amid speculation over £5m gift inquiry — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 47% |
| 10 Oct, 00:12 UTC | 47% |
| 9 Oct, 19:03 UTC | 49% |
| 6 Oct, 15:10 UTC | 44% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a governing coalition in British Columbia includes the BC Conservatives before March 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about inheritance tax for the resolution criteria, but only the formation of the government matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 47%
- No 53%